Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium · 81° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TCU–UCF) | 24–25 | – | 13–21 |
| Spread | UCF −0.9 | TCU −3.5 | UCF −8 |
| Total | 49.7 | 48.5 | 34 |
| UCF win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from TCU −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UCF +3.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for UCF (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCF by 0.917%
TCU by 14+
30%
TCU by 1–13
32%
UCF by 1–13
20%
UCF by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| TCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.005 #65 | Offense EPA / play | −0.074 #96 |
| −0.029 #37 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.047 #28 |
| −0.6% #66 | Offense success rate | −2.5% #84 |
| −1.1% #35 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.8% #30 |
| −0.092 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.006 #63 |
| +0.069 #38 | Passing EPA / play | −0.204 #123 |
| −0.109 #11 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.039 #32 |
| −0.034 #42 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.018 #48 |
| +1.2 #52 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #45 |
| −4.3 #22 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.2 #27 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.7% #123 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.3% #87 |
| +0.7% #59 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.4% #31 |
| −0.32 #79 | Points per drive | +0.49 #33 |
| −0.13 #28 | Points per drive allowed | −0.01 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.34 #109 | Line yards per rush | −0.39 #116 |
| +0.01 #50 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.22 #22 |
| +3.6% #110 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.7% #86 |
| −1.5% #80 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.9% #47 |
| −0.8% #54 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.7% #101 |
| +0.7% #48 | Havoc created | +0.2% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.128 #116 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.090 #24 |
| +0.105 #33 | Passing explosiveness | −0.066 #95 |
| −0.38 #110 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.52 #11 |
| −0.060 #51 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.031 #64 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #98 | Run rate | 52% #76 |
| −16.0 #104 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.5 #79 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| TCU | Season to date | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 25.4 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 17.6 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | +14.8 |
| -1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.9 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
TCU: last 3 games
| W31-7 | |
| W63-7 | |
| L10-15 |
UCF: last 3 games
| W44-30 | |
| L7-12 | |
| W73-6 |
