Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 58° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas Tech–Oregon State) | 32–15 | – | 35–24 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −16.3 | Texas Tech −25.5 | Texas Tech −11 |
| Total | 47.1 | 52.5 | 59 |
| Oregon State win chance | 15% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −27.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon State +25.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Lost
Spread: 9.2 pts better than Vegas for Oregon State (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 5.4 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 16.356%
Texas Tech by 14+
29%
Texas Tech by 1–13
12%
Oregon State by 1–13
3%
Oregon State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.030 #45 | Offense EPA / play | −0.047 #90 |
| −0.167 #3 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.094 #98 |
| +2.7% #39 | Offense success rate | −0.6% #69 |
| −7.0% #6 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.6% #98 |
| +0.069 #49 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.071 #119 |
| +0.053 #35 | Passing EPA / play | −0.070 #85 |
| −0.139 #7 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.054 #92 |
| −0.166 #5 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.100 #91 |
| +3.4 #33 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.5 #96 |
| −6.9 #14 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #93 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.7% #33 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.0% #78 |
| −1.5% #44 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.9% #131 |
| +0.51 #35 | Points per drive | −0.59 #95 |
| −0.47 #28 | Points per drive allowed | +0.25 #76 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.28 #36 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #81 |
| −0.42 #10 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #93 |
| −3.2% #49 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.0% #6 |
| +1.7% #39 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.3% #74 |
| −0.7% #94 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #114 |
| +4.0% #3 | Havoc created | −0.5% #73 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.001 #77 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.007 #69 |
| +0.030 #105 | Passing explosiveness | +0.073 #86 |
| −0.24 #85 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #108 |
| −0.122 #17 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.016 #67 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #104 | Run rate | 50% #123 |
| −15.1 #88 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.9 #39 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas Tech | Season to date | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.8 / 16.2 | Points for / against | 37.0 / 23.6 |
| +18.6 | Avg margin | +13.4 |
| -6.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +15.5 |
| 63.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Texas Tech: last 1 games
| W33-10 |
Oregon State: last 1 games
| L20-33 |
