Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 58° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri–Ole Miss) | 27–29 | – |
| Spread | Ole Miss −1.4 | Ole Miss −6 |
| Total | 56.1 | 57.5 |
| Ole Miss win chance | 53% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri +6 ★ Under 57.5
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for Missouri (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 1.417%
Missouri by 14+
30%
Missouri by 1–13
32%
Ole Miss by 1–13
22%
Ole Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.088 #27 | Offense EPA / play | +0.179 #9 |
| −0.149 #6 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.047 #75 |
| +2.2% #46 | Offense success rate | +9.6% #6 |
| −8.4% #6 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.9% #81 |
| +0.029 #72 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.145 #19 |
| +0.176 #16 | Passing EPA / play | +0.208 #9 |
| −0.207 #3 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.088 #102 |
| −0.080 #26 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.013 #59 |
| +4.3 #37 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.2 #19 |
| −6.5 #19 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.3 #50 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.7% #43 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.1% #28 |
| −5.0% #17 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.0% #72 |
| +0.47 #37 | Points per drive | +0.74 #23 |
| −0.82 #13 | Points per drive allowed | −0.50 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #67 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #78 |
| −0.76 #4 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.01 #66 |
| −2.1% #67 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #81 |
| +8.2% #4 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.9% #44 |
| −0.8% #78 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.3% #17 |
| +5.7% #2 | Havoc created | −1.7% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.063 #102 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.176 #11 |
| +0.161 #44 | Passing explosiveness | +0.014 #107 |
| +0.09 #39 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #80 |
| +0.135 #114 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.061 #42 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #44 | Run rate | 51% #120 |
| −5.7 #50 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.6 #12 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri | Season to date | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 37.6 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 35.5 / 30.8 |
| +17.6 | Avg margin | +4.8 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.5 |
Missouri: last 5 games
| W45-17 | |
| L24-31 | |
| W27-17 | |
| W38-21 | |
| W54-14 |
Ole Miss: last 4 games
| L28-52 | |
| W32-24 | |
| W41-9 | |
| W41-38 |
