Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field · 76° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Arkansas–Texas A&M) | 17–35 | – | 7–34 |
| Spread | Texas A&M −18.6 | Texas A&M −13.5 | Texas A&M −27 |
| Total | 52.0 | 51.5 | 41 |
| Texas A&M win chance | 88% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas A&M −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Texas A&M −13.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas A&M by 18.62%
Arkansas by 14+
10%
Arkansas by 1–13
26%
Texas A&M by 1–13
61%
Texas A&M by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Arkansas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.045 #83 | Offense EPA / play | +0.023 #52 |
| +0.093 #88 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.020 #43 |
| +1.2% #45 | Offense success rate | +2.8% #35 |
| +2.0% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #20 |
| −0.034 #79 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.007 #58 |
| −0.013 #68 | Passing EPA / play | +0.046 #51 |
| +0.106 #100 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.155 #8 |
| +0.012 #54 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.135 #95 |
| −1.9 #74 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.9 #21 |
| +1.9 #72 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.1 #13 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.5% #59 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.9% #25 |
| −0.2% #50 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.5% #30 |
| −0.41 #85 | Points per drive | +0.75 #26 |
| +0.80 #88 | Points per drive allowed | −0.59 #8 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #97 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #18 |
| +0.24 #90 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.27 #19 |
| −1.2% #47 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #36 |
| −4.2% #111 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.4% #42 |
| +1.3% #94 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #42 |
| −0.8% #74 | Havoc created | +2.0% #26 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.032 #82 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.025 #78 |
| −0.108 #112 | Passing explosiveness | −0.062 #96 |
| −0.60 #129 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #41 |
| −0.147 #25 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.168 #129 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #118 | Run rate | 53% #60 |
| +0.6 #12 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +3.8 #4 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Arkansas | Season to date | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.8 / 28.4 | Points for / against | 31.8 / 18.6 |
| -8.6 | Avg margin | +13.2 |
| -7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
Arkansas: last 4 games
| W34-6 | |
| L17-45 | |
| L10-43 | |
| W31-14 |
Texas A&M: last 4 games
| L6-35 | |
| L21-31 | |
| W48-20 | |
| W50-0 |
