Beaver projection
Tue, Oct 13, 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 73° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Delaware–MTSU) | 27–21 | – |
| Spread | Delaware −5.7 | No line |
| Total | 48.4 | n/a |
| Middle Tennessee win chance | 36% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Delaware by 5.730%
Delaware by 14+
34%
Delaware by 1–13
25%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
11%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Delaware | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.097 #108 | Offense EPA / play | −0.146 #120 |
| +0.126 #111 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.133 #115 |
| −3.6% #99 | Offense success rate | −6.7% #127 |
| +4.2% #106 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.2% #130 |
| −0.097 #119 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.068 #115 |
| −0.123 #95 | Passing EPA / play | −0.229 #122 |
| +0.044 #79 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.144 #123 |
| +0.172 #117 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.107 #88 |
| −8.2 #111 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −12.9 #132 |
| +7.2 #116 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.0 #124 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.9% #108 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.3% #119 |
| −0.2% #66 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.0% #70 |
| −0.95 #107 | Points per drive | −1.53 #133 |
| +0.99 #114 | Points per drive allowed | +1.13 #122 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.38 #128 | Line yards per rush | −0.01 #91 |
| −0.07 #56 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.43 #127 |
| +3.7% #129 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.5% #102 |
| +0.4% #63 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.4% #122 |
| +4.8% #137 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #103 |
| +0.5% #48 | Havoc created | −4.8% #137 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.177 #129 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.019 #85 |
| +0.221 #31 | Passing explosiveness | −0.049 #124 |
| −0.69 #130 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.67 #128 |
| −0.083 #34 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.122 #23 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #129 | Run rate | 45% #135 |
| −10.3 #89 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.0 #131 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Delaware | Season to date | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 21.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 20.8 / 28.0 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Delaware: last 5 games
| L14-30 | |
| L3-42 | |
| W22-14 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W42-7 |
Middle Tennessee: last 5 games
| L0-55 | |
| L13-23 | |
| W27-20 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W38-14 |
