Final
Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM ET
Plaster Sports Complex · 92° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Marshall–Missouri State) | 27–25 | – | 30–24 |
| Spread | Marshall −2.7 | Marshall −4 | Marshall −6 |
| Total | 52.3 | 52.5 | 54 |
| Missouri State win chance | 43% | – | – |
Line moved from Marshall −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri State +4 Lost★ Under 52.5 Lost
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Missouri State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Marshall by 2.724%
Marshall by 14+
33%
Marshall by 1–13
29%
Missouri State by 1–13
15%
Missouri State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Marshall | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.098 #105 | Offense EPA / play | −0.109 #112 |
| +0.177 #136 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.109 #109 |
| −3.6% #110 | Offense success rate | −7.4% #132 |
| +4.3% #113 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #123 |
| −0.166 #136 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.085 #121 |
| −0.023 #63 | Passing EPA / play | −0.113 #100 |
| +0.020 #66 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.090 #103 |
| +0.299 #134 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.103 #94 |
| −7.7 #116 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.0 #109 |
| +8.5 #129 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #123 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.8% #124 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −11.7% #135 |
| +3.0% #102 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.8% #128 |
| −1.21 #124 | Points per drive | −0.39 #84 |
| +1.07 #125 | Points per drive allowed | +1.41 #130 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 #133 | Line yards per rush | −0.17 #114 |
| +0.33 #123 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #105 |
| +3.3% #128 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #91 |
| −5.1% #132 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #95 |
| +1.6% #127 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.3% #134 |
| −2.2% #109 | Havoc created | −0.7% #72 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.175 #132 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.027 #66 |
| +0.037 #94 | Passing explosiveness | +0.213 #33 |
| −0.70 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.35 #97 |
| +0.156 #123 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.134 #116 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #53 | Run rate | 54% #77 |
| −2.1 #28 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.5 #47 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Marshall | Season to date | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 22.2 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 32.0 |
| -12.8 | Avg margin | -8.0 |
| -13.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.1 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.5 |
Marshall: last 2 games
| W28-26 | |
| L0-45 |
Missouri State: last 2 games
| W48-14 | |
| L0-50 |
