Final
Sat, Sep 5, 9:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium · 85° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Mercyhurst–NMSU) | 12–40 | – | 14–51 |
| Spread | NMSU −27.6 | NMSU −29.5 | NMSU −37 |
| Total | 51.9 | 52.5 | 65 |
| New Mexico State win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from NMSU −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Mercyhurst +29.5 Lost★ Under 52.5 Lost
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for Mercyhurst (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NMSU by 27.60%
Mercyhurst by 14+
4%
Mercyhurst by 1–13
15%
New Mexico State by 1–13
80%
New Mexico State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Mercyhurst | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.325 | Offense EPA / play | −0.150 #135 |
| +0.357 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.120 #126 |
| −12.5% | Offense success rate | −6.1% #136 |
| +17.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.8% #129 |
| −0.332 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.080 #136 |
| −0.289 | Passing EPA / play | −0.176 #133 |
| +0.341 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.062 #104 |
| +0.378 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.205 #135 |
| −24.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.1 #137 |
| +16.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.8 #126 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.1% #136 |
| +19.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #116 |
| −2.65 | Points per drive | −1.17 #137 |
| +3.84 | Points per drive allowed | +0.83 #122 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #137 |
| +1.13 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #135 |
| +9.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #135 |
| −7.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #122 |
| −3.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.6% #137 |
| −11.6% | Havoc created | −2.3% #126 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.094 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.014 #112 |
| −0.051 | Passing explosiveness | +0.141 #38 |
| −0.84 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.48 #135 |
| −0.062 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.008 #74 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% | Run rate | 51% #119 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Mercyhurst | Season to date | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 9.3 / 57.7 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 26.4 |
| -48.3 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| -11.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 39.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |
Mercyhurst: last games
No games yet.
New Mexico State: last 1 games
| L17-34 |
