Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 86° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Nicholls–Sam Houston) | 15–44 | – | 0–59 |
| Spread | Sam Houston −28.8 | Sam Houston −21 | Sam Houston −59 |
| Total | 59.4 | 50.5 | 59 |
| Sam Houston win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Sam Houston −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston −21 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 7.8 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 8.9 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Sam Houston by 28.80%
Nicholls by 14+
3%
Nicholls by 1–13
14%
Sam Houston by 1–13
82%
Sam Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nicholls | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.276 | Offense EPA / play | −0.086 #100 |
| +0.177 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.104 #105 |
| −14.9% | Offense success rate | −0.7% #76 |
| +11.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.5% #76 |
| −0.243 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.100 #125 |
| −0.211 | Passing EPA / play | −0.109 #98 |
| +0.261 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.180 #132 |
| +0.107 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.010 #57 |
| −17.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #132 |
| +18.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.0 #118 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.8% #92 |
| +7.0% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.1% #86 |
| −2.59 | Points per drive | −1.28 #126 |
| +2.80 | Points per drive allowed | +0.70 #113 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.67 | Line yards per rush | −0.32 #129 |
| +1.12 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.24 #110 |
| +7.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.2% #126 |
| −10.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #87 |
| +4.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.4% #137 |
| −3.4% | Havoc created | +0.6% #46 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.156 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.085 #111 |
| +0.246 | Passing explosiveness | +0.047 #87 |
| −0.63 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.41 #109 |
| +0.150 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.020 #77 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 48% #131 |
| +9.4 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.7 #71 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nicholls | Season to date | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 1.5 / 65.0 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 24.0 |
| -63.5 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -32.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +14.1 |
| 51.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.5 |
Nicholls: last 1 games
| L3-71 |
