Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:45 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium · 57° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Marshall–James Madison) | 20–41 | – | 17–45 |
| Spread | James Madison −20.6 | James Madison −14.5 | James Madison −28 |
| Total | 60.7 | 55.5 | 62 |
| James Madison win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from James Madison −13.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison −14.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 20.62%
Marshall by 14+
9%
Marshall by 1–13
24%
James Madison by 1–13
66%
James Madison by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Marshall | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.034 #81 | Offense EPA / play | +0.030 #52 |
| +0.274 #138 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.044 #40 |
| −2.1% #89 | Offense success rate | +0.4% #65 |
| +8.4% #137 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.7% #27 |
| −0.108 #121 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.109 #40 |
| +0.065 #41 | Passing EPA / play | −0.015 #63 |
| +0.089 #102 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.035 #41 |
| +0.425 #138 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #45 |
| −6.4 #102 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +6.2 #23 |
| +10.1 #128 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #46 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.6% #125 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.8% #47 |
| +5.1% #119 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #54 |
| −1.09 #116 | Points per drive | +0.96 #21 |
| +1.37 #129 | Points per drive allowed | −0.04 #59 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.04 #85 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #90 |
| +0.48 #132 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #55 |
| +0.7% #109 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.0% #83 |
| −4.5% #127 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #82 |
| −0.2% #95 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.1% #33 |
| −4.2% #133 | Havoc created | −0.5% #68 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.148 #127 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.041 #52 |
| +0.102 #72 | Passing explosiveness | +0.088 #77 |
| −0.44 #114 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.02 #56 |
| +0.250 #131 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.069 #95 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #63 | Run rate | 57% #47 |
| −11.3 #89 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.3 #130 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Marshall | Season to date | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 22.2 / 35.0 | Points for / against | 44.8 / 13.2 |
| -12.8 | Avg margin | +31.6 |
| -13.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.4 |
| 65.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
Marshall: last 4 games
| W36-35 | |
| W30-24 | |
| W28-26 | |
| L0-45 |
James Madison: last 4 games
| W46-20 | |
| W26-13 | |
| W87-3 | |
| W20-13 |
