Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium · 80° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Old Dominion–Georgia State) | 24–31 | – | 10–42 |
| Spread | Georgia State −7.3 | Georgia State −1.5 | Georgia State −32 |
| Total | 54.5 | 51.5 | 52 |
| Georgia State win chance | 68% | – | – |
Line moved from Old Dominion −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia State −1.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 5.8 pts better than Vegas for Georgia State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia State by 7.39%
Old Dominion by 14+
23%
Old Dominion by 1–13
34%
Georgia State by 1–13
34%
Georgia State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Old Dominion | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.193 #129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.000 #62 |
| −0.021 #42 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.121 #100 |
| −9.3% #133 | Offense success rate | −0.3% #61 |
| −1.8% #32 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #88 |
| −0.227 #135 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.005 #59 |
| −0.272 #131 | Passing EPA / play | +0.055 #50 |
| −0.056 #26 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.169 #126 |
| −0.032 #44 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.020 #58 |
| −7.6 #110 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.4 #58 |
| +5.7 #93 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.8 #111 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.6% #82 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +7.5% #11 |
| +0.9% #64 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.5% #84 |
| −1.29 #121 | Points per drive | −0.03 #63 |
| +0.65 #75 | Points per drive allowed | +1.14 #108 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.11 #138 | Line yards per rush | −0.03 #53 |
| −0.04 #44 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.42 #116 |
| +9.6% #135 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.1% #87 |
| −0.7% #66 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #75 |
| +5.5% #137 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #31 |
| +0.1% #55 | Havoc created | −0.8% #72 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.144 #14 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.154 #12 |
| +0.179 #17 | Passing explosiveness | +0.081 #42 |
| +0.17 #33 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.12 #36 |
| −0.060 #56 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.036 #97 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #23 | Run rate | 52% #62 |
| −7.9 #51 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.0 #124 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Old Dominion | Season to date | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-5 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.8 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 39.4 / 19.0 |
| -12.6 | Avg margin | +20.4 |
| -16.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.7 |
| 51.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Old Dominion: last 4 games
| L20-46 | |
| L17-20 | |
| L21-44 | |
| W31-10 |
Georgia State: last 4 games
| W35-14 | |
| L30-44 | |
| W31-17 | |
| W59-10 |
