Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 74° · wind 12 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (James Madison–GASO) | 32–24 | 34–18 | – |
| Spread | James Madison −7.9 | James Madison −15.8 | James Madison −7.5 |
| Total | 55.4 | 51.8 | 51.5 |
| Georgia Southern win chance | 31% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ James Madison −7.5 ★ Over 51.5
Spread: 0.4 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ James Madison −7.5 ☆ Over 51.5
Spread: 8.3 pts better than Vegas for James Madison. Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around James Madison by 7.935%
James Madison by 14+
34%
James Madison by 1–13
23%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
9%
Georgia Southern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| James Madison | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.033 #48 | Offense EPA / play | −0.004 #67 |
| +0.027 #60 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.107 #94 |
| −0.4% #63 | Offense success rate | −1.0% #72 |
| +0.4% #57 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.7% #77 |
| +0.067 #32 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.083 #99 |
| −0.001 #62 | Passing EPA / play | +0.022 #59 |
| +0.035 #60 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #88 |
| +0.000 #53 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.153 #105 |
| +6.0 #22 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #85 |
| −0.2 #53 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.1 #91 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.7% #47 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.6% #60 |
| +4.3% #94 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.2% #86 |
| +0.66 #27 | Points per drive | −0.53 #91 |
| +0.48 #65 | Points per drive allowed | +0.97 #99 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.11 #71 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #66 |
| +0.17 #78 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #79 |
| +0.4% #65 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.6% #67 |
| −4.3% #118 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #70 |
| −2.3% #24 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.3% #96 |
| −1.5% #87 | Havoc created | −0.7% #67 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.040 #51 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.045 #89 |
| −0.064 #98 | Passing explosiveness | −0.151 #123 |
| +0.52 #11 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #66 |
| +0.010 #89 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.198 #9 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #50 | Run rate | 43% #132 |
| −20.4 #135 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.9 #77 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| James Madison | Season to date | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 44.8 / 13.2 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 23.8 |
| +31.6 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +17.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.1 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
James Madison: last 5 games
| W45-17 | |
| W46-20 | |
| W26-13 | |
| W87-3 | |
| W20-13 |
Georgia Southern: last 5 games
| W31-24 | |
| L28-42 | |
| L27-31 | |
| L7-22 | |
| W31-0 |
