Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Brooks Stadium (SC) · 74° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (GASO–CCU) | 29–24 | – | 31–24 |
| Spread | GASO −5.8 | GASO −2.5 | GASO −7 |
| Total | 53.1 | 53.5 | 55 |
| Coastal Carolina win chance | 36% | – | – |
Line moved from CCU −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ GASO −2.5 Won★ Under 53.5 Lost
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Southern (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around GASO by 5.830%
Georgia Southern by 14+
34%
Georgia Southern by 1–13
25%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
11%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| GASO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.009 #70 | Offense EPA / play | −0.070 #96 |
| +0.087 #94 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.097 #98 |
| −0.1% #74 | Offense success rate | −5.4% #118 |
| +0.5% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #123 |
| −0.048 #105 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.010 #87 |
| +0.014 #54 | Passing EPA / play | −0.133 #99 |
| +0.043 #80 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.009 #65 |
| +0.169 #112 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.338 #135 |
| −4.5 #90 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #110 |
| +3.0 #85 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.4 #102 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.9% #59 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.1% #46 |
| +4.0% #105 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.1% #56 |
| −0.57 #97 | Points per drive | −1.24 #120 |
| +0.36 #88 | Points per drive allowed | +0.38 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.22 #48 | Line yards per rush | +0.15 #58 |
| −0.10 #56 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #121 |
| −5.1% #26 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.3% #91 |
| +2.6% #38 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.1% #131 |
| +0.4% #110 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.6% #134 |
| +0.2% #52 | Havoc created | −2.7% #112 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.141 #125 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.007 #78 |
| −0.035 #121 | Passing explosiveness | +0.479 #2 |
| −0.36 #98 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.34 #96 |
| −0.139 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.047 #46 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #133 | Run rate | 53% #103 |
| −6.7 #48 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.4 #117 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| GASO | Season to date | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 24.8 / 23.8 | Points for / against | 24.8 / 25.0 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | -0.2 |
| +3.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Georgia Southern: last 4 games
| L28-42 | |
| L27-31 | |
| L7-22 | |
| W31-0 |
Coastal Carolina: last 4 games
| L17-34 | |
| L14-22 | |
| W45-7 | |
| L24-31 |
