Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium · 49° · wind 13 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Old Dominion–App State) | 18–25 | 21–36 | – |
| Spread | App State −7.3 | App State −15.6 | App State −9.5 |
| Total | 43.4 | 56.6 | 49.5 |
| App State win chance | 68% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Old Dominion +9.5 ★ Under 49.5
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Old Dominion (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ App State −9.5 ☆ Over 49.5
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for App State. Total: 7.1 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around App State by 7.39%
Old Dominion by 14+
23%
Old Dominion by 1–13
35%
App State by 1–13
33%
App State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Old Dominion | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.228 #134 | Offense EPA / play | −0.040 #77 |
| −0.006 #48 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.103 #91 |
| −10.9% #137 | Offense success rate | −4.5% #98 |
| −0.5% #43 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.9% #107 |
| −0.240 #135 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.178 #124 |
| −0.310 #135 | Passing EPA / play | +0.129 #30 |
| −0.057 #27 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.172 #125 |
| +0.063 #77 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.003 #54 |
| −9.7 #123 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.6 #78 |
| +6.5 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #101 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.4% #100 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.1% #43 |
| +0.4% #55 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.3% #29 |
| −1.36 #126 | Points per drive | −0.18 #74 |
| +0.88 #89 | Points per drive allowed | +0.83 #88 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.23 #138 | Line yards per rush | −0.71 #133 |
| +0.03 #55 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.28 #97 |
| +12.0% #138 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.3% #123 |
| −0.6% #64 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #85 |
| +6.7% #138 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #51 |
| +0.3% #50 | Havoc created | −0.5% #66 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.109 #25 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.048 #92 |
| +0.186 #17 | Passing explosiveness | +0.014 #63 |
| +0.05 #46 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.72 #133 |
| +0.039 #97 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.119 #35 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #31 | Run rate | 48% #112 |
| −7.7 #62 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.4 #132 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Old Dominion | Season to date | App State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-5 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 19.8 / 32.4 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 22.2 |
| -12.6 | Avg margin | +12.5 |
| -16.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.9 |
| 51.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Old Dominion: last 5 games
| L10-42 | |
| L20-46 | |
| L17-20 | |
| L21-44 | |
| W31-10 |
App State: last 4 games
| L31-41 | |
| W26-21 | |
| W27-24 | |
| W55-3 |
