Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:30 PM ET
Malone Stadium · 97° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SE Louisiana–UL Monroe) | 21–38 | – | 38–35 |
| Spread | UL Monroe −17.3 | UL Monroe −9.5 | SE Louisiana −3 |
| Total | 58.5 | 48.5 | 73 |
| UL Monroe win chance | 86% | – | – |
Line moved from UL Monroe −10.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UL Monroe −9.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 7.8 pts better than Vegas for UL Monroe (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 10.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UL Monroe by 17.33%
SE Louisiana by 14+
12%
SE Louisiana by 1–13
28%
UL Monroe by 1–13
58%
UL Monroe by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SE Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.241 | Offense EPA / play | −0.193 #134 |
| +0.235 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.152 #128 |
| −9.9% | Offense success rate | −5.3% #123 |
| +10.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.3% #133 |
| −0.208 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.008 #90 |
| −0.155 | Passing EPA / play | −0.332 #136 |
| +0.238 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.197 #134 |
| +0.214 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #73 |
| −14.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.2 #128 |
| +14.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.5 #132 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.2% #127 |
| +5.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.8% #127 |
| −1.93 | Points per drive | −0.80 #105 |
| +1.53 | Points per drive allowed | +1.55 #135 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 | Line yards per rush | +0.20 #45 |
| +0.71 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.46 #131 |
| +6.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.5% #30 |
| −6.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.9% #113 |
| +6.8% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.2% #105 |
| −3.8% | Havoc created | −1.2% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.247 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.054 #100 |
| −0.006 | Passing explosiveness | −0.045 #119 |
| −0.35 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #102 |
| −0.073 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.037 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 63% #14 |
| −8.6 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.0 #22 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SE Louisiana | Season to date | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 26.0 / 37.0 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 44.6 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | -20.6 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.1 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
SE Louisiana: last 1 games
| L14-39 |
UL Monroe: last 2 games
| L20-26 | |
| L13-62 |
