Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 71° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Gardner-Webb–Marshall) | 19–41 | – | 35–36 |
| Spread | Marshall −22.0 | Marshall −24.5 | Marshall −1 |
| Total | 59.5 | 56.5 | 71 |
| Marshall win chance | 91% | – | – |
Line moved from Marshall −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Gardner-Webb +24.5 Won★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Gardner-Webb (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Marshall by 22.01%
Gardner-Webb by 14+
8%
Gardner-Webb by 1–13
22%
Marshall by 1–13
69%
Marshall by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Gardner-Webb | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.235 | Offense EPA / play | −0.035 #82 |
| +0.110 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.207 #136 |
| −10.6% | Offense success rate | −0.9% #80 |
| +4.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +8.0% #136 |
| −0.163 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.086 #120 |
| −0.263 | Passing EPA / play | +0.037 #41 |
| +0.078 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #78 |
| +0.178 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.343 #134 |
| −12.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.8 #106 |
| +11.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.8 #112 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.9% #122 |
| +6.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.6% #106 |
| −2.02 | Points per drive | −1.15 #122 |
| +1.18 | Points per drive allowed | +0.88 #117 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.81 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #107 |
| +0.15 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.46 #132 |
| +8.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.2% #115 |
| +1.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.5% #135 |
| +2.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #111 |
| +1.7% | Havoc created | −3.2% #124 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.093 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.170 #133 |
| −0.042 | Passing explosiveness | +0.044 #94 |
| −0.62 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.55 #124 |
| +0.463 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.115 #111 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% | Run rate | 59% #38 |
| −6.0 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.4 #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Gardner-Webb | Season to date | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 29.0 / 30.0 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 35.0 |
| -1.0 | Avg margin | -12.8 |
| +25.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -13.2 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Gardner-Webb: last 1 games
| L23-24 |
Marshall: last 3 games
| W30-24 | |
| W28-26 | |
| L0-45 |
