Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Peden Stadium · 69° · wind 10 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CMU–Ohio) | 23–29 | 25–26 | – |
| Spread | Ohio −5.6 | Ohio −0.9 | Ohio −3 |
| Total | 52.1 | 51.9 | 46.5 |
| Ohio win chance | 64% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio −3 ★ Over 46.5
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.6 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ CMU +3 ☆ Over 46.5
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Central Michigan. Total: 5.4 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio by 5.611%
Central Michigan by 14+
25%
Central Michigan by 1–13
34%
Ohio by 1–13
30%
Ohio by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CMU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.103 #106 | Offense EPA / play | −0.041 #78 |
| +0.168 #121 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.160 #119 |
| −6.7% #122 | Offense success rate | −1.9% #78 |
| +7.3% #120 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.8% #104 |
| +0.051 #38 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.006 #60 |
| −0.346 #138 | Passing EPA / play | −0.128 #103 |
| +0.173 #126 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.128 #108 |
| +0.067 #78 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.223 #123 |
| −10.1 #126 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.8 #96 |
| +5.4 #94 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #102 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.2% #116 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.2% #89 |
| +8.9% #130 | Passing-down success allowed | +10.8% #134 |
| −1.11 #113 | Points per drive | −0.91 #103 |
| +1.55 #119 | Points per drive allowed | +1.14 #104 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #54 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #33 |
| +0.61 #132 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #66 |
| −0.6% #52 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.8% #13 |
| −4.2% #115 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #69 |
| −0.9% #50 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #58 |
| −1.1% #77 | Havoc created | −0.3% #62 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.176 #7 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.067 #100 |
| −0.327 #138 | Passing explosiveness | −0.048 #93 |
| −0.12 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.61 #127 |
| −0.175 #17 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.015 #76 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 67% #6 | Run rate | 59% #13 |
| −7.9 #64 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.8 #116 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CMU | Season to date | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 26.8 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | +0.0 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 46.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.8 |
Central Michigan: last 5 games
| W41-17 | |
| L3-52 | |
| W24-10 | |
| W13-10 | |
| L7-38 |
Ohio: last 5 games
| W13-10 | |
| W35-7 | |
| L36-41 | |
| W29-27 | |
| L21-49 |
