Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Dix Stadium · 64° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio–Kent State) | 33–20 | – | 13–10 |
| Spread | Ohio −12.8 | Ohio −3.5 | Ohio −3 |
| Total | 52.9 | 50.5 | 23 |
| Kent State win chance | 21% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio −3.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 9.3 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio by 12.847%
Ohio by 14+
32%
Ohio by 1–13
16%
Kent State by 1–13
5%
Kent State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.000 #63 | Offense EPA / play | −0.163 #126 |
| +0.165 #125 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.121 #107 |
| −1.6% #87 | Offense success rate | −10.4% #138 |
| +3.5% #98 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.4% #126 |
| +0.109 #39 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.135 #128 |
| −0.117 #96 | Passing EPA / play | −0.115 #92 |
| +0.102 #106 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.118 #113 |
| +0.270 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.127 #94 |
| −2.8 #81 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.9 #129 |
| +7.8 #122 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +11.0 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.8% #97 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −12.9% #136 |
| +8.7% #134 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.5% #100 |
| −0.41 #89 | Points per drive | −1.42 #132 |
| +0.74 #111 | Points per drive allowed | +2.37 #137 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.43 #19 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #115 |
| +0.02 #72 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.38 #122 |
| −8.2% #1 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.7% #117 |
| +1.9% #44 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.2% #104 |
| −2.3% #45 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #104 |
| −0.1% #57 | Havoc created | −1.9% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.015 #64 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.002 #72 |
| +0.107 #69 | Passing explosiveness | +0.462 #3 |
| −0.68 #134 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.59 #128 |
| +0.151 #118 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.010 #64 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 61% #24 | Run rate | 61% #26 |
| −12.3 #97 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.1 #38 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio | Season to date | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 26.8 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 15.0 / 31.4 |
| +0.0 | Avg margin | -16.4 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 61.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Ohio: last 4 games
| W35-7 | |
| L36-41 | |
| W29-27 | |
| L21-49 |
Kent State: last 4 games
| W26-13 | |
| L3-59 | |
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
