Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Peden Stadium · 70° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Stonehill–Ohio) | 10–51 | – | 7–35 |
| Spread | Ohio −40.7 | Ohio −32.5 | Ohio −28 |
| Total | 61.7 | 53.5 | 42 |
| Ohio win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio −34.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio −32.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 8.2 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 8.2 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio by 40.70%
Stonehill by 14+
1%
Stonehill by 1–13
4%
Ohio by 1–13
95%
Ohio by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Stonehill | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.357 | Offense EPA / play | −0.003 #66 |
| +0.232 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.173 #132 |
| −15.5% | Offense success rate | −0.7% #75 |
| +12.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #120 |
| −0.480 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.116 #28 |
| −0.129 | Passing EPA / play | −0.116 #102 |
| +0.320 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.129 #116 |
| +0.095 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.272 #132 |
| −25.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.3 #72 |
| +17.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #117 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.4% #85 |
| +8.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +10.5% #136 |
| −3.54 | Points per drive | −0.35 #80 |
| +2.02 | Points per drive allowed | +0.44 #93 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | +0.57 #8 |
| +1.16 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.21 #105 |
| +8.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −9.2% #1 |
| −9.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.0% #71 |
| +2.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #83 |
| −4.4% | Havoc created | −0.5% #71 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.446 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.033 #90 |
| +0.320 | Passing explosiveness | +0.068 #85 |
| −1.15 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.54 #123 |
| −0.055 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.159 #124 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 59% #32 |
| −16.7 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.6 #31 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Stonehill | Season to date | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.5 / 35.5 | Points for / against | 26.8 / 26.8 |
| -25.0 | Avg margin | +0.0 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.8 |
Stonehill: last 1 games
| L14-36 |
Ohio: last 3 games
| L36-41 | |
| W29-27 | |
| L21-49 |
