Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl · 78° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CCSU–Toledo) | 8–51 | – | 10–63 |
| Spread | Toledo −43.0 | Toledo −36.5 | Toledo −53 |
| Total | 59.0 | 52.5 | 73 |
| Toledo win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Toledo −33.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Toledo −36.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.5 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Toledo by 43.00%
Central Connecticut by 14+
0%
Central Connecticut by 1–13
3%
Toledo by 1–13
96%
Toledo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CCSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.287 | Offense EPA / play | −0.035 #81 |
| +0.333 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.021 #45 |
| −12.3% | Offense success rate | −3.7% #116 |
| +11.7% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.1% #46 |
| −0.248 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.025 #72 |
| −0.280 | Passing EPA / play | −0.078 #90 |
| +0.331 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.048 #32 |
| +0.279 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.086 #87 |
| −14.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.6 #88 |
| +21.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.4 #64 |
| Situational | ||
| −15.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.8% #96 |
| +11.6% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.2% #35 |
| −2.32 | Points per drive | −0.36 #76 |
| +3.02 | Points per drive allowed | −0.03 #52 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.91 | Line yards per rush | −0.33 #133 |
| +0.48 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.04 #57 |
| +8.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.1% #135 |
| −3.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #56 |
| +3.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.7% #121 |
| −6.7% | Havoc created | −1.8% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.004 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.293 #1 |
| −0.070 | Passing explosiveness | +0.345 #7 |
| −0.33 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.34 #20 |
| +0.012 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.053 #46 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 55% #74 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.0 #48 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CCSU | Season to date | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 10.0 / 63.0 | Points for / against | 42.4 / 25.6 |
| -53.0 | Avg margin | +16.8 |
| -16.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 43.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
Central Connecticut: last games
No games yet.
Toledo: last 1 games
| L20-30 |
