Final
Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium · 80° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Buffalo–FIU) | 17–30 | – | 20–33 |
| Spread | FIU −12.4 | FIU −8.5 | FIU −13 |
| Total | 46.8 | 47.5 | 53 |
| Florida International win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from FIU −10.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ FIU −8.5 Won★ Under 47.5 Lost
Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for Florida International (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FIU by 12.45%
Buffalo by 14+
17%
Buffalo by 1–13
32%
Florida International by 1–13
46%
Florida International by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Buffalo | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.130 #123 | Offense EPA / play | −0.102 #115 |
| +0.129 #122 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.014 #52 |
| −6.7% #130 | Offense success rate | −2.1% #95 |
| +3.6% #110 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.1% #85 |
| −0.078 #122 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.088 #129 |
| −0.177 #121 | Passing EPA / play | −0.118 #100 |
| +0.034 #80 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.016 #50 |
| +0.219 #126 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.038 #73 |
| −10.9 #137 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.8 #113 |
| +7.3 #120 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.9 #70 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.1% #114 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.7% #108 |
| +2.7% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #42 |
| −1.58 #136 | Points per drive | −0.83 #110 |
| +0.72 #117 | Points per drive allowed | +0.01 #55 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.18 #120 | Line yards per rush | −0.03 #98 |
| +0.27 #120 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #55 |
| +0.8% #114 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.0% #116 |
| −0.8% #85 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.3% #59 |
| +0.3% #116 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.2% #78 |
| −0.6% #75 | Havoc created | −1.1% #87 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.112 #121 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.128 #126 |
| +0.089 #77 | Passing explosiveness | +0.001 #118 |
| −0.23 #79 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.29 #97 |
| +0.246 #136 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.166 #9 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #100 | Run rate | 52% #114 |
| −30.2 #110 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −1.7 #45 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Buffalo | Season to date | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 20.4 / 30.6 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 14.5 |
| -10.2 | Avg margin | +3.5 |
| -7.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 70.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 73.5 |
Buffalo: last 1 games
| W21-17 |
Florida International: last 1 games
| L9-19 |
