Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium · 83° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (New Mexico–NMSU) | 32–20 | – | 42–18 |
| Spread | New Mexico −11.7 | New Mexico −11.5 | New Mexico −24 |
| Total | 51.8 | 47.5 | 60 |
| New Mexico State win chance | 23% | – | – |
Line moved from New Mexico −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ New Mexico −11.5 Won★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around New Mexico by 11.744%
New Mexico by 14+
33%
New Mexico by 1–13
18%
New Mexico State by 1–13
5%
New Mexico State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| New Mexico | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.089 #103 | Offense EPA / play | −0.145 #115 |
| −0.036 #33 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.130 #102 |
| −4.8% #106 | Offense success rate | −6.1% #117 |
| −1.1% #36 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.1% #122 |
| +0.021 #49 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.144 #119 |
| −0.244 #127 | Passing EPA / play | −0.114 #103 |
| −0.001 #49 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #66 |
| +0.061 #75 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.170 #109 |
| +0.5 #58 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.1 #115 |
| −0.4 #54 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.4 #109 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% #91 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.2% #70 |
| −0.1% #51 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.5% #93 |
| −0.22 #74 | Points per drive | −1.06 #114 |
| +0.29 #53 | Points per drive allowed | +1.08 #107 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.09 #66 | Line yards per rush | −0.43 #122 |
| −0.46 #8 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.28 #100 |
| −1.9% #27 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.5% #82 |
| +1.5% #41 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.1% #45 |
| −0.9% #52 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.1% #122 |
| +2.4% #16 | Havoc created | −4.9% #136 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.136 #16 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.035 #80 |
| +0.148 #24 | Passing explosiveness | −0.012 #79 |
| −0.34 #103 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.53 #124 |
| −0.030 #66 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.142 #28 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #36 | Run rate | 45% #127 |
| −17.1 #111 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −18.1 #119 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| New Mexico | Season to date | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 43.4 / 10.6 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 26.4 |
| +32.8 | Avg margin | +1.4 |
| +19.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |
New Mexico: last 3 games
| L6-14 | |
| W70-7 | |
| W38-7 |
New Mexico State: last 3 games
| L19-29 | |
| W51-14 | |
| L17-34 |
