Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Yulman Stadium · 80° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Alabama–Tulane) | 17–29 | – | 24–28 |
| Spread | Tulane −12.1 | Tulane −9.5 | Tulane −4 |
| Total | 46.6 | 48.5 | 52 |
| Tulane win chance | 78% | – | – |
Line moved from Tulane −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Tulane −9.5 Lost★ Under 48.5 Lost
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Tulane (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulane by 12.15%
South Alabama by 14+
17%
South Alabama by 1–13
33%
Tulane by 1–13
45%
Tulane by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Alabama | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.155 #132 | Offense EPA / play | −0.076 #108 |
| +0.101 #104 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.068 #21 |
| −5.4% #126 | Offense success rate | −2.7% #103 |
| +4.7% #122 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.8% #25 |
| −0.040 #106 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.062 #118 |
| −0.253 #132 | Passing EPA / play | −0.122 #103 |
| −0.016 #51 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.007 #63 |
| +0.172 #117 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.125 #12 |
| −5.3 #103 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.7 #117 |
| +5.4 #106 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.9 #28 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.8% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.8% #135 |
| +3.2% #104 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.9% #55 |
| −0.85 #111 | Points per drive | −0.86 #112 |
| +0.72 #116 | Points per drive allowed | −0.48 #27 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #110 | Line yards per rush | +0.15 #61 |
| −0.06 #53 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.04 #78 |
| −1.4% #79 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.5% #45 |
| +0.1% #62 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #63 |
| −0.9% #86 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #119 |
| −1.4% #91 | Havoc created | −2.1% #110 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.041 #53 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.213 #136 |
| +0.042 #103 | Passing explosiveness | +0.008 #116 |
| −0.60 #134 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #63 |
| +0.117 #115 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.121 #18 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 63% #11 | Run rate | 54% #79 |
| −27.4 #105 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.7 #29 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Alabama | Season to date | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 35.4 / 31.6 | Points for / against | 18.8 / 23.2 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | -4.5 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 69.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.2 |
South Alabama: last 1 games
| W39-14 |
Tulane: last 1 games
| L3-17 |
