Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium · 64° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (App State–NC State) | 21–36 | – | 31–41 |
| Spread | NC State −15.2 | NC State −12.5 | NC State −10 |
| Total | 56.8 | 56.5 | 72 |
| NC State win chance | 83% | – | – |
Line moved from NC State −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State −12.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NC State by 15.24%
App State by 14+
14%
App State by 1–13
30%
NC State by 1–13
53%
NC State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| App State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.028 #81 | Offense EPA / play | +0.074 #31 |
| +0.079 #93 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.071 #89 |
| −3.2% #101 | Offense success rate | +3.0% #38 |
| +3.1% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #73 |
| −0.131 #127 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.003 #86 |
| +0.149 #23 | Passing EPA / play | +0.200 #13 |
| +0.089 #103 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.046 #34 |
| +0.049 #75 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.192 #119 |
| −2.4 #77 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.3 #24 |
| +3.2 #87 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.5 #63 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.6% #34 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.5% #19 |
| −5.9% #11 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.0% #80 |
| +0.05 #57 | Points per drive | +1.28 #15 |
| +0.37 #89 | Points per drive allowed | +0.04 #65 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.52 #134 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #65 |
| +0.12 #85 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.23 #30 |
| +1.7% #120 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #62 |
| −1.0% #85 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.3% #53 |
| −2.0% #60 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #62 |
| +0.4% #52 | Havoc created | +0.0% #62 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.002 #76 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.000 #73 |
| +0.184 #40 | Passing explosiveness | +0.051 #92 |
| −0.57 #126 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.43 #14 |
| −0.036 #50 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.200 #129 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #104 | Run rate | 57% #50 |
| −19.5 #125 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.2 #67 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| App State | Season to date | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 34.8 / 22.2 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 25.6 |
| +12.5 | Avg margin | +11.2 |
| +7.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.5 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
App State: last 3 games
| W26-21 | |
| W27-24 | |
| W55-3 |
NC State: last 3 games
| L31-35 | |
| W73-0 | |
| L8-34 |
