Final
Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium · 78° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NMSU–Florida State) | 10–41 | – | 17–34 |
| Spread | Florida State −31.2 | Florida State −30.5 | Florida State −17 |
| Total | 51.4 | 53.5 | 51 |
| Florida State win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Florida State −28.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Florida State −30.5 Lost★ Under 53.5 Won
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for Florida State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Florida State by 31.20%
New Mexico State by 14+
2%
New Mexico State by 1–13
12%
Florida State by 1–13
86%
Florida State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NMSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.170 #135 | Offense EPA / play | +0.102 #15 |
| +0.145 #126 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.005 #37 |
| −7.8% #134 | Offense success rate | +4.5% #15 |
| +7.0% #130 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.1% #36 |
| −0.166 #137 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.093 #14 |
| −0.162 #133 | Passing EPA / play | +0.083 #23 |
| +0.086 #103 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.001 #39 |
| +0.203 #134 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.035 #26 |
| −10.3 #135 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #20 |
| +9.5 #124 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #31 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.4% #135 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.4% #12 |
| +4.7% #122 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.2% #38 |
| −1.34 #137 | Points per drive | +1.12 #14 |
| +1.44 #125 | Points per drive allowed | +0.18 #39 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.63 #137 | Line yards per rush | +0.24 #6 |
| +0.40 #135 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #66 |
| +5.7% #138 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.9% #5 |
| −3.3% #126 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #77 |
| +3.4% #137 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #95 |
| −3.2% #127 | Havoc created | +1.3% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.041 #136 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.013 #22 |
| −0.019 #104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.095 #6 |
| −0.42 #136 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #28 |
| −0.036 #54 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.074 #13 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #128 | Run rate | 57% #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NMSU | Season to date | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 26.4 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 21.6 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
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