Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 78° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (New Mexico–Hawai'i) | 33–18 | – |
| Spread | New Mexico −15.0 | No line |
| Total | 50.3 | n/a |
| Hawai'i win chance | 17% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around New Mexico by 15.052%
New Mexico by 14+
30%
New Mexico by 1–13
14%
Hawai'i by 1–13
3%
Hawai'i by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| New Mexico | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.017 #71 | Offense EPA / play | −0.147 #117 |
| −0.038 #33 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.210 #133 |
| −2.5% #85 | Offense success rate | −6.7% #121 |
| −1.6% #30 | Defense success rate allowed | +9.1% #133 |
| +0.041 #41 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.199 #128 |
| −0.131 #106 | Passing EPA / play | −0.131 #105 |
| +0.032 #58 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.219 #136 |
| −0.024 #40 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.112 #89 |
| +4.2 #39 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.2 #131 |
| −1.7 #43 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #110 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.5% #79 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.3% #112 |
| −1.1% #43 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #93 |
| +0.56 #32 | Points per drive | −1.53 #131 |
| +0.38 #56 | Points per drive allowed | +1.19 #106 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.03 #52 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #99 |
| −0.36 #16 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.49 #123 |
| −3.3% #14 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #98 |
| +1.0% #44 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.6% #134 |
| −1.3% #41 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #116 |
| +3.6% #11 | Havoc created | −3.6% #122 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.152 #12 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.101 #107 |
| +0.194 #14 | Passing explosiveness | −0.111 #117 |
| −0.28 #89 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.13 #73 |
| +0.068 #105 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.132 #29 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #20 | Run rate | 37% #138 |
| −18.7 #128 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.5 #109 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| New Mexico | Season to date | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 43.4 / 10.6 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 24.8 |
| +32.8 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| +19.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.4 |
New Mexico: last 5 games
| W61-7 | |
| W42-18 | |
| L6-14 | |
| W70-7 | |
| W38-7 |
Hawai'i: last 5 games
| L16-20 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W29-19 | |
| L6-21 | |
| L27-37 |
