Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium · 77° · wind 7 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wyoming–San José State) | 19–24 | 16–26 | – |
| Spread | San José State −5.0 | San José State −9.7 | San José State −6 |
| Total | 43.8 | 41.7 | 43.5 |
| San José State win chance | 63% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming +6 ★ Over 43.5
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ San José State −6 ☆ Under 43.5
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for San José State. Total: 1.8 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around San José State by 5.011%
Wyoming by 14+
26%
Wyoming by 1–13
34%
San José State by 1–13
28%
San José State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wyoming | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.164 #122 | Offense EPA / play | −0.135 #116 |
| +0.147 #110 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.077 #77 |
| −6.6% #119 | Offense success rate | −8.2% #131 |
| +9.0% #132 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.8% #95 |
| −0.094 #103 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.213 #132 |
| −0.284 #132 | Passing EPA / play | −0.030 #74 |
| +0.132 #110 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.111 #101 |
| +0.146 #99 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.052 #72 |
| −16.9 #138 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.2 #110 |
| +4.0 #86 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.3 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.2% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.3% #128 |
| +5.3% #105 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.9% #45 |
| −2.00 #138 | Points per drive | −1.33 #125 |
| +0.93 #96 | Points per drive allowed | +0.91 #94 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.13 #75 | Line yards per rush | −0.37 #111 |
| +0.53 #126 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.32 #107 |
| +1.6% #82 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.7% #125 |
| −4.6% #122 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.5% #126 |
| +1.8% #112 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.7% #110 |
| −3.4% #121 | Havoc created | −2.2% #104 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.106 #109 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.099 #106 |
| −0.083 #107 | Passing explosiveness | −0.016 #84 |
| −0.53 #122 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.71 #131 |
| −0.145 #26 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.078 #52 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #48 | Run rate | 48% #110 |
| −17.8 #123 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.8 #101 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wyoming | Season to date | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 14.2 / 22.0 | Points for / against | 22.6 / 25.0 |
| -7.8 | Avg margin | -2.4 |
| -8.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.4 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.8 |
Wyoming: last 5 games
| L0-28 | |
| W27-10 | |
| L10-24 | |
| W21-13 | |
| L13-35 |
San José State: last 5 games
| W20-16 | |
| L10-26 | |
| W30-20 | |
| W27-21 | |
| L26-42 |
