Final
Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET
Hornet Stadium · 77° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NDSU–SAC) | 30–22 | – | 31–10 |
| Spread | NDSU −7.8 | NDSU −26.5 | NDSU −21 |
| Total | 52.7 | 50.5 | 41 |
| Sacramento State win chance | 31% | – | – |
Line moved from NDSU −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SAC +26.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 18.7 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around NDSU by 7.835%
North Dakota State by 14+
34%
North Dakota State by 1–13
23%
Sacramento State by 1–13
9%
Sacramento State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NDSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.063 #88 | Offense EPA / play | −0.218 #135 |
| −0.003 #38 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.180 #130 |
| −4.9% #112 | Offense success rate | −9.6% #134 |
| +4.1% #90 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.1% #117 |
| −0.085 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.130 #116 |
| −0.030 #71 | Passing EPA / play | −0.284 #132 |
| +0.017 #55 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #76 |
| +0.032 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.212 #124 |
| −3.6 #85 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.0 #131 |
| +3.7 #85 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.6 #134 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.6% #125 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −11.6% #136 |
| −0.5% #43 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.2% #41 |
| +0.07 #50 | Points per drive | −1.44 #128 |
| +0.87 #86 | Points per drive allowed | +1.90 #131 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 #118 | Line yards per rush | −1.11 #138 |
| +0.24 #91 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #112 |
| +2.1% #89 | Runs stuffed at the line | +12.1% #138 |
| −4.0% #111 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #104 |
| +0.1% #74 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.7% #86 |
| −2.6% #110 | Havoc created | −3.7% #124 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.033 #52 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.089 #27 |
| +0.130 #28 | Passing explosiveness | −0.236 #135 |
| −0.48 #126 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #103 |
| +0.019 #89 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.163 #22 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #45 | Run rate | 46% #124 |
| −24.7 #123 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −26.1 #128 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NDSU | Season to date | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.6 / 9.8 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 28.6 |
| +23.8 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 56.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.6 |
North Dakota State: last 3 games
| W38-32 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W33-7 |
Sacramento State: last 3 games
| L3-49 | |
| W52-0 | |
| L17-28 |
