Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium · 81° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (FAU–Army) | 27–33 | – |
| Spread | Army −5.8 | No line |
| Total | 59.3 | n/a |
| Army win chance | 64% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 5.811%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
25%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
33%
Army by 1–13
31%
Army by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FAU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.002 #67 | Offense EPA / play | +0.040 #48 |
| +0.173 #128 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.188 #132 |
| +0.2% #66 | Offense success rate | +2.5% #44 |
| +2.2% #84 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.7% #125 |
| +0.024 #76 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.211 #8 |
| −0.033 #71 | Passing EPA / play | −0.096 #89 |
| +0.173 #128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.179 #130 |
| +0.164 #110 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.230 #125 |
| −0.9 #68 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #80 |
| +8.5 #123 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.6 #69 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.9% #30 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.0% #93 |
| +1.7% #87 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #118 |
| +1.00 #16 | Points per drive | +0.12 #61 |
| +1.18 #124 | Points per drive allowed | +0.29 #86 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.08 #74 | Line yards per rush | +0.43 #19 |
| −0.02 #65 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.44 #130 |
| −3.9% #40 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.1% #14 |
| +1.8% #45 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #87 |
| −0.4% #97 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −6.7% #2 |
| −1.1% #79 | Havoc created | −3.6% #126 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.051 #55 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.112 #31 |
| −0.008 #114 | Passing explosiveness | +0.170 #43 |
| −0.80 #135 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.20 #30 |
| +0.226 #132 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.010 #71 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #130 | Run rate | 84% #2 |
| −18.2 #132 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.4 #111 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FAU | Season to date | Army |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-2-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 37.2 / 26.6 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 19.8 |
| +10.6 | Avg margin | +13.5 |
| +3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Florida Atlantic: last 5 games
| W66-10 | |
| W45-17 | |
| W16-10 | |
| W38-30 | |
| L21-66 |
Army: last 4 games
| L29-31 | |
| W21-17 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W59-3 |
