Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium · 75° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Navy–Air Force) | 29–30 | – | 9–14 |
| Spread | Air Force −1.3 | Air Force −2.5 | Air Force −5 |
| Total | 58.4 | 45.5 | 23 |
| Air Force win chance | 53% | – | – |
Line moved from Air Force −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Navy +2.5 Lost★ Over 45.5 Lost
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Navy (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 12.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Air Force by 1.317%
Navy by 14+
30%
Navy by 1–13
31%
Air Force by 1–13
22%
Air Force by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Navy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.060 #88 | Offense EPA / play | +0.017 #54 |
| +0.198 #131 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.167 #119 |
| +0.7% #52 | Offense success rate | −1.1% #73 |
| +4.1% #86 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.7% #116 |
| +0.052 #42 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.081 #29 |
| −0.399 #138 | Passing EPA / play | −0.097 #91 |
| +0.068 #81 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.221 #133 |
| +0.366 #137 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.105 #89 |
| −6.0 #98 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.0 #88 |
| +8.2 #114 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.8 #125 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.1% #126 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.6% #120 |
| +7.0% #123 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.1% #93 |
| −0.77 #103 | Points per drive | −0.68 #99 |
| +1.43 #117 | Points per drive allowed | +1.36 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.10 #35 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #45 |
| +0.14 #75 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.47 #120 |
| −1.7% #41 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.4% #12 |
| −0.0% #57 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.7% #108 |
| +1.5% #98 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.4% #6 |
| −3.1% #115 | Havoc created | −3.8% #129 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.060 #40 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.003 #63 |
| −0.008 #73 | Passing explosiveness | +0.092 #37 |
| +0.29 #19 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.68 #136 |
| +0.129 #120 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.021 #90 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 73% #3 | Run rate | 78% #2 |
| −22.1 #134 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.7 #130 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Navy | Season to date | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-4 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 25.2 / 22.8 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 20.0 |
| +2.5 | Avg margin | +9.0 |
| -7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.0 |
Navy: last 3 games
| L20-24 | |
| L30-38 | |
| W42-15 |
Air Force: last 3 games
| W36-33 | |
| L32-38 | |
| W34-0 |
