Final
Sat, Oct 3, 11:00 AM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium · 75° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Memphis–Charlotte) | 37–15 | – | 59–8 |
| Spread | Memphis −21.8 | Memphis −18.5 | Memphis −51 |
| Total | 51.9 | 52.5 | 67 |
| Charlotte win chance | 9% | – | – |
Line moved from Memphis −21.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Memphis −18.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Lost
Spread: 3.3 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Memphis by 21.869%
Memphis by 14+
23%
Memphis by 1–13
7%
Charlotte by 1–13
1%
Charlotte by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Memphis | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.038 #46 | Offense EPA / play | −0.285 #137 |
| +0.130 #102 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.147 #111 |
| +0.5% #55 | Offense success rate | −11.0% #134 |
| +2.6% #73 | Defense success rate allowed | +9.6% #136 |
| +0.019 #55 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.372 #138 |
| +0.172 #18 | Passing EPA / play | −0.214 #125 |
| +0.203 #132 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #89 |
| +0.038 #67 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.159 #105 |
| +1.9 #51 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −13.0 #134 |
| +5.4 #92 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.7 #134 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.9% #51 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.8% #132 |
| +1.1% #68 | Passing-down success allowed | +15.0% #138 |
| −0.19 #73 | Points per drive | −1.46 #129 |
| +0.71 #81 | Points per drive allowed | +1.61 #124 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #46 | Line yards per rush | −0.97 #137 |
| +0.25 #92 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #82 |
| +1.2% #74 | Runs stuffed at the line | +10.7% #137 |
| −3.2% #104 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.6% #25 |
| −1.5% #38 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.8% #128 |
| −0.8% #73 | Havoc created | −2.7% #109 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.117 #22 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.359 #137 |
| +0.150 #22 | Passing explosiveness | −0.169 #127 |
| +0.85 #4 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #88 |
| +0.139 #122 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.204 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #34 | Run rate | 45% #125 |
| −11.8 #88 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.3 #81 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Memphis | Season to date | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 38.6 / 22.4 | Points for / against | 17.2 / 40.6 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.0 |
Memphis: last 4 games
| W45-21 | |
| L20-38 | |
| W42-24 | |
| W27-21 |
Charlotte: last 4 games
| L7-34 | |
| L21-26 | |
| L9-41 | |
| L41-43 |
