Final
Thu, Oct 1, 9:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium · 70° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Texas–Tulsa) | 31–26 | – | 45–44 |
| Spread | North Texas −5.0 | North Texas −3 | North Texas −1 |
| Total | 56.9 | 56.5 | 89 |
| Tulsa win chance | 38% | – | – |
Line moved from North Texas −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas −3 Lost★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 5.029%
North Texas by 14+
33%
North Texas by 1–13
26%
Tulsa by 1–13
12%
Tulsa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Texas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.151 #16 | Offense EPA / play | −0.091 #99 |
| +0.100 #92 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.002 #50 |
| +4.3% #19 | Offense success rate | −5.7% #112 |
| +7.9% #127 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.6% #54 |
| +0.095 #20 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.028 #77 |
| +0.159 #21 | Passing EPA / play | −0.131 #105 |
| −0.055 #29 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.019 #39 |
| +0.361 #136 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.012 #55 |
| +7.4 #19 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.1 #114 |
| +6.5 #101 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.1 #53 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.2% #34 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −13.2% #137 |
| +4.4% #95 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.2% #94 |
| +0.52 #35 | Points per drive | −1.06 #112 |
| +0.86 #93 | Points per drive allowed | +0.36 #55 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.16 #30 | Line yards per rush | −0.11 #70 |
| −0.24 #22 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.18 #78 |
| −2.4% #28 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #39 |
| +0.2% #54 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.3% #93 |
| −2.9% #19 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #69 |
| −1.9% #101 | Havoc created | −2.0% #102 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.180 #7 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.028 #50 |
| +0.002 #69 | Passing explosiveness | −0.104 #109 |
| +0.03 #48 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #43 |
| +0.084 #110 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.063 #54 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #109 | Run rate | 51% #83 |
| −5.9 #36 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.0 #107 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Texas | Season to date | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 40.6 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 21.2 |
| +7.6 | Avg margin | +6.6 |
| +8.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
North Texas: last 4 games
| W63-14 | |
| L35-49 | |
| W44-6 | |
| L16-52 |
Tulsa: last 4 games
| L6-34 | |
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
