Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium · 88° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (HCU–North Texas) | 15–51 | – | 14–63 |
| Spread | North Texas −36.0 | North Texas −38.5 | North Texas −49 |
| Total | 65.6 | 60.5 | 77 |
| North Texas win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from North Texas −37.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ HCU +38.5 Lost★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Houston Christian (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.1 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 36.00%
Houston Christian by 14+
1%
Houston Christian by 1–13
8%
North Texas by 1–13
91%
North Texas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| HCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.233 | Offense EPA / play | +0.089 #26 |
| +0.175 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.131 #103 |
| −15.4% | Offense success rate | +2.4% #36 |
| +11.8% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.7% #118 |
| −0.237 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.039 #42 |
| −0.144 | Passing EPA / play | +0.076 #37 |
| +0.259 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.059 #29 |
| +0.048 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.466 #138 |
| −13.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.3 #30 |
| +13.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.3 #108 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.5% #29 |
| +4.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.6% #111 |
| −0.94 | Points per drive | +0.18 #46 |
| +1.69 | Points per drive allowed | +1.01 #103 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.64 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #35 |
| +0.96 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #35 |
| +6.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.1% #11 |
| −10.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.3% #88 |
| +5.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #20 |
| −3.4% | Havoc created | −2.9% #114 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.012 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.162 #11 |
| +0.217 | Passing explosiveness | +0.010 #74 |
| −0.22 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #76 |
| −0.052 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.194 #133 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 50% #95 |
| −14.5 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.5 #17 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| HCU | Season to date | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 8.5 / 47.0 | Points for / against | 40.6 / 33.0 |
| -38.5 | Avg margin | +7.6 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.4 |
| 53.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.4 |
Houston Christian: last 1 games
| L3-31 |
North Texas: last 3 games
| L35-49 | |
| W44-6 | |
| L16-52 |
