Final
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM ET
Malone Stadium · 81° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FAU–UL Monroe) | 33–26 | – | 45–17 |
| Spread | FAU −7.0 | FAU −11.5 | FAU −28 |
| Total | 58.8 | 58.5 | 62 |
| UL Monroe win chance | 33% | – | – |
Line moved from FAU −13.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UL Monroe +11.5 Lost★ Over 58.5 Won
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for UL Monroe (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FAU by 7.033%
Florida Atlantic by 14+
33%
Florida Atlantic by 1–13
24%
UL Monroe by 1–13
10%
UL Monroe by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FAU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.044 #84 | Offense EPA / play | −0.255 #137 |
| +0.111 #104 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.180 #135 |
| −1.0% #81 | Offense success rate | −3.8% #107 |
| +2.6% #92 | Defense success rate allowed | +7.8% #135 |
| −0.013 #90 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.018 #79 |
| −0.106 #97 | Passing EPA / play | −0.414 #138 |
| +0.152 #127 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.213 #138 |
| +0.083 #86 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.092 #88 |
| −3.9 #86 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.0 #126 |
| +9.8 #128 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +13.0 #136 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.5% #53 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.1% #104 |
| +1.7% #87 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.3% #127 |
| −0.61 #95 | Points per drive | −1.00 #115 |
| +0.98 #121 | Points per drive allowed | +1.85 #136 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #96 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #100 |
| −0.06 #59 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.44 #131 |
| −3.4% #51 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #79 |
| +0.6% #60 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.6% #120 |
| +0.1% #99 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.4% #132 |
| +0.2% #57 | Havoc created | −3.3% #127 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.052 #56 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.020 #82 |
| −0.072 #127 | Passing explosiveness | −0.048 #122 |
| −0.74 #134 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #45 |
| +0.193 #127 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.097 #31 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #127 | Run rate | 57% #49 |
| −2.9 #33 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.0 #49 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FAU | Season to date | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.2 / 26.6 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 44.6 |
| +10.6 | Avg margin | -20.6 |
| +3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.1 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Florida Atlantic: last 3 games
| W16-10 | |
| W38-30 | |
| L21-66 |
UL Monroe: last 3 games
| L35-38 | |
| L20-26 | |
| L13-62 |
