Final
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium · 70° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana–Charlotte) | 33–19 | – | 34–7 |
| Spread | Louisiana −13.8 | Louisiana −9.5 | Louisiana −27 |
| Total | 51.5 | 49.5 | 41 |
| Charlotte win chance | 19% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana −14.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana −9.5 Won★ Over 49.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 13.850%
Louisiana by 14+
31%
Louisiana by 1–13
15%
Charlotte by 1–13
4%
Charlotte by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.050 #89 | Offense EPA / play | −0.194 #135 |
| +0.005 #58 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.140 #122 |
| −4.6% #113 | Offense success rate | −7.7% #133 |
| +2.5% #90 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.8% #137 |
| +0.117 #27 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.109 #123 |
| −0.101 #95 | Passing EPA / play | −0.220 #121 |
| −0.012 #51 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #101 |
| +0.132 #101 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.141 #103 |
| −2.8 #81 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.9 #124 |
| +3.8 #90 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.1 #129 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #99 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.3% #117 |
| +1.9% #90 | Passing-down success allowed | +15.2% #138 |
| −0.60 #94 | Points per drive | −1.26 #126 |
| +0.31 #85 | Points per drive allowed | +0.95 #120 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #85 | Line yards per rush | −0.63 #136 |
| +0.00 #65 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #86 |
| −2.0% #66 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.4% #134 |
| +1.7% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.1% #21 |
| −0.7% #88 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #86 |
| −1.1% #81 | Havoc created | −3.2% #123 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.261 #3 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.068 #45 |
| −0.005 #109 | Passing explosiveness | −0.045 #120 |
| +0.01 #49 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #59 |
| −0.068 #36 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.223 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 64% #11 | Run rate | 52% #105 |
| −9.3 #59 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.2 #57 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana | Season to date | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 0-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 29.2 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 17.2 / 40.6 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| +7.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 62.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.0 |
Charlotte: last 3 games
| L21-26 | |
| L9-41 | |
| L41-43 |
