Final
Fri, Sep 25, 4:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field · 69° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Army–Temple) | 29–27 | – | 21–17 |
| Spread | Army −2.4 | Army −4 | Army −4 |
| Total | 55.7 | 48.5 | 38 |
| Temple win chance | 44% | – | – |
Line moved from Army −3 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Temple +4 Push★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for Temple (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.2 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 2.424%
Army by 14+
32%
Army by 1–13
29%
Temple by 1–13
15%
Temple by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Army | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.018 #76 | Offense EPA / play | +0.041 #45 |
| +0.136 #118 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.129 #114 |
| −0.1% #67 | Offense success rate | −0.4% #73 |
| +4.9% #118 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.5% #125 |
| +0.147 #18 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.093 #36 |
| −0.085 #89 | Passing EPA / play | −0.049 #79 |
| +0.122 #114 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.111 #109 |
| +0.156 #106 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.130 #99 |
| −2.8 #80 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #65 |
| +1.6 #80 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.1 #101 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.8% #110 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.0% #63 |
| +4.3% #111 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.0% #119 |
| +0.08 #55 | Points per drive | −0.17 #72 |
| +0.47 #96 | Points per drive allowed | +0.40 #92 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.45 #15 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #72 |
| +0.26 #114 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #72 |
| −6.7% #5 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.0% #88 |
| +0.2% #68 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.6% #125 |
| −6.3% #6 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #25 |
| −2.6% #115 | Havoc created | −2.7% #120 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.029 #60 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.061 #52 |
| +0.302 #19 | Passing explosiveness | +0.229 #28 |
| +0.10 #38 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.25 #23 |
| −0.000 #62 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.046 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 86% #1 | Run rate | 64% #12 |
| −18.1 #122 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.6 #36 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Army | Season to date | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-2-1 | Against the spread | 4-0-1 |
| 3-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 33.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 25.8 / 24.8 |
| +13.5 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +2.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.8 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Army: last 2 games
| L24-28 | |
| W59-3 |
Temple: last 3 games
| L48-49 | |
| L9-27 | |
| W38-14 |
