Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl · 68° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Temple–Toledo) | 20–32 | – | 48–49 |
| Spread | Toledo −11.9 | Toledo −4.5 | Toledo −1 |
| Total | 51.2 | 48.5 | 97 |
| Toledo win chance | 77% | – | – |
Line moved from Toledo −4 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Toledo −4.5 Lost★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 7.4 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Toledo by 11.95%
Temple by 14+
18%
Temple by 1–13
32%
Toledo by 1–13
45%
Toledo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Temple | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.024 #74 | Offense EPA / play | −0.048 #87 |
| +0.103 #104 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.039 #36 |
| −1.4% #82 | Offense success rate | −4.1% #115 |
| +3.4% #100 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.8% #39 |
| +0.068 #44 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.019 #94 |
| −0.142 #109 | Passing EPA / play | −0.059 #76 |
| +0.112 #110 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.009 #52 |
| +0.092 #87 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.094 #89 |
| −4.3 #94 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.4 #58 |
| +2.7 #87 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.1 #67 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.1% #75 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.8% #98 |
| +2.9% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.1% #34 |
| −0.38 #83 | Points per drive | +0.52 #35 |
| +0.46 #89 | Points per drive allowed | +0.20 #78 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.01 #88 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #127 |
| −0.19 #42 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.03 #68 |
| −0.4% #92 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.8% #125 |
| −0.7% #80 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #69 |
| −2.4% #41 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.1% #122 |
| −2.1% #105 | Havoc created | −1.7% #91 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.152 #14 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.208 #6 |
| −0.074 #124 | Passing explosiveness | +0.471 #2 |
| +0.20 #25 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.02 #50 |
| +0.018 #74 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.099 #25 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 62% #19 | Run rate | 55% #72 |
| −1.4 #24 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.5 #113 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Temple | Season to date | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-0-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 25.8 / 24.8 | Points for / against | 42.4 / 25.6 |
| +1.0 | Avg margin | +16.8 |
| +5.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.4 |
Temple: last 2 games
| L9-27 | |
| W38-14 |
Toledo: last 2 games
| W63-10 | |
| L20-30 |
