Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 86° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulsa–Sam Houston) | 26–26 | – | 23–17 |
| Spread | Tulsa −0.5 | Tulsa −12.5 | Tulsa −6 |
| Total | 51.8 | 51.5 | 40 |
| Sam Houston win chance | 49% | – | – |
Line moved from Tulsa −10.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston +12.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 12.0 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulsa by 0.520%
Tulsa by 14+
31%
Tulsa by 1–13
31%
Sam Houston by 1–13
18%
Sam Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulsa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.091 #109 | Offense EPA / play | −0.136 #120 |
| +0.007 #53 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.134 #112 |
| −3.8% #103 | Offense success rate | −3.0% #90 |
| +3.2% #80 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #97 |
| −0.098 #104 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.172 #132 |
| −0.066 #89 | Passing EPA / play | −0.147 #115 |
| −0.038 #31 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.091 #96 |
| +0.059 #80 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.155 #113 |
| −6.8 #111 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #124 |
| +3.6 #79 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.7 #118 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.1% #133 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.2% #101 |
| +5.7% #114 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.4% #101 |
| −1.12 #125 | Points per drive | −1.21 #129 |
| +0.45 #56 | Points per drive allowed | +1.05 #98 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.28 #100 | Line yards per rush | −0.60 #131 |
| +0.17 #87 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #90 |
| +2.2% #90 | Runs stuffed at the line | +9.5% #137 |
| −0.2% #50 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.9% #65 |
| +0.5% #85 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.3% #132 |
| −4.3% #131 | Havoc created | −1.1% #84 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.057 #96 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.080 #110 |
| −0.019 #78 | Passing explosiveness | −0.063 #104 |
| −0.39 #118 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #73 |
| −0.114 #30 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.116 #124 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #44 | Run rate | 44% #133 |
| −12.0 #72 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.3 #78 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulsa | Season to date | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 27.8 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 24.0 |
| +6.6 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +14.1 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.5 |
Tulsa: last 1 games
| W24-10 |
Sam Houston: last 1 games
| L21-24 |
