Final
Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium · 90° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Texas State–SDSU) | 32–27 | – | 29–31 |
| Spread | Texas State −4.9 | Texas State −10 | SDSU −2 |
| Total | 58.5 | 57.5 | 60 |
| San Diego State win chance | 38% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas State −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SDSU +10 Won★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for San Diego State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas State by 4.929%
Texas State by 14+
33%
Texas State by 1–13
26%
San Diego State by 1–13
12%
San Diego State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Texas State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.168 #13 | Offense EPA / play | −0.149 #120 |
| +0.115 #97 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.072 #77 |
| +4.1% #22 | Offense success rate | −7.5% #129 |
| +5.6% #103 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #89 |
| +0.114 #17 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.065 #89 |
| +0.278 #7 | Passing EPA / play | −0.287 #132 |
| −0.005 #47 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #38 |
| +0.183 #115 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.171 #110 |
| +4.3 #33 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.0 #113 |
| +7.2 #107 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.9 #63 |
| Situational | ||
| +13.3% #2 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.6% #104 |
| +6.0% #111 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.6% #46 |
| +0.70 #29 | Points per drive | −0.84 #107 |
| +1.56 #122 | Points per drive allowed | +0.31 #50 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.21 #20 | Line yards per rush | −0.16 #80 |
| −0.11 #36 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.54 #126 |
| −1.0% #50 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.5% #95 |
| +5.1% #8 | Opponent runs stuffed | −8.4% #138 |
| −3.0% #17 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.3% #115 |
| −1.0% #78 | Havoc created | −4.9% #135 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.109 #26 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.107 #28 |
| +0.238 #11 | Passing explosiveness | +0.063 #49 |
| +1.35 #1 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #87 |
| −0.059 #57 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.032 #93 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #12 | Run rate | 58% #17 |
| −1.6 #18 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.4 #40 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Texas State | Season to date | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 34.8 / 33.2 | Points for / against | 24.6 / 28.8 |
| +1.6 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| -1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.3 |
| 67.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
Texas State: last 4 games
| W63-10 | |
| W49-35 | |
| L26-31 | |
| L7-59 |
San Diego State: last 4 games
| L16-41 | |
| L13-26 | |
| L10-28 | |
| W53-20 |
