Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium · 68° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Boise State–WMU) | 26–26 | – | 32–7 |
| Spread | WMU −0.6 | Boise State −8.5 | Boise State −25 |
| Total | 51.9 | 50.5 | 39 |
| Western Michigan win chance | 52% | – | – |
Line moved from Boise State −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WMU +8.5 Lost★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 9.1 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WMU by 0.618%
Boise State by 14+
30%
Boise State by 1–13
31%
Western Michigan by 1–13
20%
Western Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Boise State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.049 #41 | Offense EPA / play | −0.025 #76 |
| −0.002 #45 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.027 #60 |
| +2.7% #33 | Offense success rate | −3.5% #96 |
| −3.2% #17 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.9% #99 |
| +0.029 #46 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.014 #66 |
| +0.015 #53 | Passing EPA / play | −0.081 #94 |
| −0.017 #40 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.030 #64 |
| +0.037 #69 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.014 #50 |
| +1.3 #51 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #81 |
| −0.9 #48 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.8% #34 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.6% #103 |
| −1.6% #36 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #109 |
| −0.22 #75 | Points per drive | −0.49 #87 |
| −0.15 #27 | Points per drive allowed | +0.23 #45 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.20 #17 | Line yards per rush | −0.36 #112 |
| −0.28 #17 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.27 #97 |
| −1.5% #40 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.4% #81 |
| +5.0% #9 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.2% #115 |
| −2.9% #16 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #36 |
| +3.0% #10 | Havoc created | −2.2% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.085 #105 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.061 #38 |
| −0.068 #98 | Passing explosiveness | −0.103 #106 |
| +0.09 #42 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #83 |
| +0.315 #138 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.182 #17 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #19 | Run rate | 63% #7 |
| −2.2 #22 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.2 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Boise State | Season to date | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 34.4 / 20.6 | Points for / against | 23.2 / 19.4 |
| +13.8 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| +5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.7 |
| 67.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.6 |
Boise State: last 3 games
| W38-24 | |
| W38-20 | |
| L27-34 |
