Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM ET
Maverik Stadium · 72° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Troy–Utah State) | 22–28 | – | 10–21 |
| Spread | Utah State −5.6 | Utah State −3 | Utah State −11 |
| Total | 49.5 | 47.5 | 31 |
| Utah State win chance | 64% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah State −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah State −3 Won★ Over 47.5 Lost
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Utah State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah State by 5.611%
Troy by 14+
25%
Troy by 1–13
34%
Utah State by 1–13
30%
Utah State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Troy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.081 #99 | Offense EPA / play | −0.161 #125 |
| +0.046 #72 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.058 #77 |
| −6.1% #116 | Offense success rate | −6.3% #121 |
| +1.8% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.7% #62 |
| −0.117 #112 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.209 #132 |
| −0.018 #73 | Passing EPA / play | −0.135 #108 |
| +0.009 #55 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #97 |
| −0.031 #43 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.003 #54 |
| −6.8 #107 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.6 #129 |
| +3.6 #84 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.3 #67 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.8% #92 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.7% #47 |
| −2.5% #28 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.8% #45 |
| −1.31 #128 | Points per drive | −1.48 #134 |
| +0.66 #78 | Points per drive allowed | +0.11 #36 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.43 #123 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #104 |
| −0.13 #30 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.11 #65 |
| +7.7% #132 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.6% #119 |
| +3.9% #12 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #65 |
| +4.4% #135 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.1% #123 |
| +1.5% #31 | Havoc created | −2.7% #112 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.061 #92 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.092 #108 |
| +0.229 #12 | Passing explosiveness | +0.213 #17 |
| −0.32 #98 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.57 #128 |
| +0.000 #82 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.205 #13 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #54 | Run rate | 47% #116 |
| −11.4 #68 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.8 #19 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Troy | Season to date | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 28.0 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 14.0 / 25.0 |
| +4.0 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 74.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.4 |
Troy: last 3 games
| L17-27 | |
| W34-17 | |
| W24-21 |
Utah State: last 3 games
| L0-33 | |
| L14-16 | |
| L17-29 |
