Final
Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium · 86° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SAC–Fresno State) | 15–31 | – | 3–49 |
| Spread | Fresno State −15.8 | Fresno State −17.5 | Fresno State −46 |
| Total | 45.4 | 43.5 | 52 |
| Fresno State win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Fresno State −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SAC +17.5 Lost★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Fresno State by 15.83%
Sacramento State by 14+
13%
Sacramento State by 1–13
30%
Fresno State by 1–13
55%
Fresno State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SAC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.199 #135 | Offense EPA / play | −0.143 #121 |
| +0.157 #124 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.031 #65 |
| −9.7% #136 | Offense success rate | −6.1% #123 |
| +5.3% #109 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.4% #82 |
| −0.131 #121 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.151 #128 |
| −0.240 #133 | Passing EPA / play | +0.032 #52 |
| +0.089 #95 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.152 #4 |
| +0.148 #110 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.270 #135 |
| −8.1 #119 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #121 |
| +8.8 #119 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #63 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.3% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.5% #39 |
| +1.6% #69 | Passing-down success allowed | +9.5% #136 |
| −1.21 #130 | Points per drive | −1.03 #121 |
| +1.22 #110 | Points per drive allowed | +0.98 #95 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.08 #138 | Line yards per rush | −0.41 #119 |
| +0.47 #124 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #60 |
| +10.8% #138 | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.0% #127 |
| −4.2% #123 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.6% #30 |
| +1.8% #113 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #79 |
| −3.1% #120 | Havoc created | −0.5% #71 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.107 #19 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.132 #123 |
| −0.147 #130 | Passing explosiveness | +0.044 #54 |
| −0.24 #87 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #67 |
| −0.224 #6 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.082 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #118 | Run rate | 54% #43 |
| −35.9 #119 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +13.5 #13 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SAC | Season to date | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 17.6 / 28.6 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 16.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg margin | +11.4 |
| -6.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.4 |
| 49.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Sacramento State: last 2 games
| W52-0 | |
| L17-28 |
Fresno State: last 1 games
| L0-39 |
