Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 58° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio State–Indiana) | 30–25 | – |
| Spread | Ohio State −4.9 | Indiana −1.5 |
| Total | 55.4 | 48.5 |
| Indiana win chance | 38% | – |
Line moved from Ohio State −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ohio State +1.5 ★ Over 48.5
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio State by 4.929%
Ohio State by 14+
33%
Ohio State by 1–13
26%
Indiana by 1–13
12%
Indiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.237 #4 | Offense EPA / play | +0.212 #6 |
| −0.130 #8 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.100 #13 |
| +11.7% #2 | Offense success rate | +4.9% #15 |
| −4.4% #15 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.0% #8 |
| +0.095 #23 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.098 #21 |
| +0.346 #3 | Passing EPA / play | +0.352 #2 |
| −0.065 #25 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.137 #14 |
| −0.241 #6 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.061 #29 |
| +14.8 #6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.4 #13 |
| −10.8 #4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.3 #5 |
| Situational | ||
| +10.1% #5 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #42 |
| +0.6% #59 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.7% #48 |
| +2.29 #5 | Points per drive | +1.78 #8 |
| −0.74 #5 | Points per drive allowed | −0.40 #16 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.33 #11 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #32 |
| −0.17 #26 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.38 #13 |
| −2.7% #24 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.8% #33 |
| +1.9% #33 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.0% #43 |
| −2.8% #18 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.5% #13 |
| +3.9% #10 | Havoc created | +3.1% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.005 #66 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.084 #33 |
| +0.112 #29 | Passing explosiveness | +0.182 #19 |
| −0.20 #80 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.83 #5 |
| −0.021 #75 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.033 #95 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #87 | Run rate | 58% #18 |
| −2.1 #23 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.7 #93 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio State | Season to date | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 42.2 / 12.6 | Points for / against | 44.2 / 10.8 |
| +29.6 | Avg margin | +33.4 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.2 |
Ohio State: last 5 games
| W31-14 | |
| W42-19 | |
| W59-3 | |
| L23-24 | |
| W56-3 |
Indiana: last 5 games
| W47-15 | |
| W29-23 | |
| W38-0 | |
| W55-0 | |
| W52-16 |
