Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 4:15 PM ET
Ohio Stadium · 70° · wind 11 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Maryland–Ohio State) | 10–44 | 11–47 | – |
| Spread | Ohio State −34.3 | Ohio State −36.6 | Ohio State −34.5 |
| Total | 54.3 | 57.8 | 56.5 |
| Ohio State win chance | 98% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Maryland +34.5 ★ Under 56.5
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Maryland (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Ohio State −34.5 ☆ Over 56.5
Spread: 2.1 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State. Total: 1.3 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio State by 34.30%
Maryland by 14+
2%
Maryland by 1–13
9%
Ohio State by 1–13
90%
Ohio State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Maryland | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.074 #92 | Offense EPA / play | +0.238 #4 |
| +0.003 #51 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.130 #7 |
| −2.6% #86 | Offense success rate | +11.7% #2 |
| +1.6% #67 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.4% #15 |
| −0.014 #69 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.095 #23 |
| −0.168 #112 | Passing EPA / play | +0.347 #3 |
| +0.009 #49 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.064 #25 |
| −0.006 #48 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.240 #6 |
| −1.4 #72 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +14.9 #6 |
| +4.6 #89 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −10.8 #3 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.6% #54 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +10.1% #5 |
| +4.6% #99 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #60 |
| −0.06 #69 | Points per drive | +2.29 #5 |
| +0.98 #100 | Points per drive allowed | −0.74 #5 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #87 | Line yards per rush | +0.33 #10 |
| −0.18 #26 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.17 #27 |
| +2.3% #92 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.7% #23 |
| +1.7% #35 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.8% #33 |
| −0.9% #49 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.8% #18 |
| −0.9% #72 | Havoc created | +3.9% #10 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.163 #10 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.004 #66 |
| −0.081 #104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.111 #30 |
| +0.35 #21 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.20 #79 |
| −0.151 #25 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.021 #75 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 39% #137 | Run rate | 50% #87 |
| −7.6 #60 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.1 #23 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Maryland | Season to date | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.4 / 30.2 | Points for / against | 42.2 / 12.6 |
| +0.2 | Avg margin | +29.6 |
| -7.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.0 |
Maryland: last 5 games
| L23-48 | |
| L3-54 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W38-14 | |
| W62-0 |
Ohio State: last 5 games
| W31-14 | |
| W42-19 | |
| W59-3 | |
| L23-24 | |
| W56-3 |
