Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:30 PM ET
Ryan Field · 76° · wind 12 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Northwestern) | 11–47 | 3–50 | – |
| Spread | Northwestern −36.0 | Northwestern −46.6 | Northwestern −36.5 |
| Total | 57.1 | 52.7 | 52.5 |
| Northwestern win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ball State +36.5 ★ Over 52.5
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Ball State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.6 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Northwestern −36.5 ☆ Over 52.5
Spread: 10.1 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern. Total: 0.2 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 36.00%
Ball State by 14+
1%
Ball State by 1–13
7%
Northwestern by 1–13
91%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.129 #115 | Offense EPA / play | +0.166 #12 |
| +0.208 #131 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.012 #55 |
| −9.9% #134 | Offense success rate | +7.3% #9 |
| +5.4% #100 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.2% #93 |
| −0.119 #112 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.166 #7 |
| −0.096 #91 | Passing EPA / play | +0.143 #24 |
| +0.215 #134 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.066 #78 |
| +0.183 #118 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.081 #25 |
| −10.7 #130 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.8 #23 |
| +11.7 #129 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −6.4 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.0% #108 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.0% #17 |
| +7.5% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.0% #35 |
| −1.47 #129 | Points per drive | +0.19 #59 |
| +1.95 #130 | Points per drive allowed | −0.64 #9 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.54 #124 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #19 |
| +0.29 #101 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #114 |
| +4.0% #112 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.9% #12 |
| −1.0% #71 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #79 |
| +4.0% #132 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.6% #21 |
| −4.3% #131 | Havoc created | +1.2% #37 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.117 #21 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.051 #46 |
| +0.003 #71 | Passing explosiveness | −0.034 #88 |
| +0.15 #36 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.47 #13 |
| −0.022 #73 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.224 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #101 | Run rate | 57% #23 |
| −6.8 #52 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +3.1 #9 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Ball State: last 5 games
| L24-39 | |
| L13-26 | |
| L15-51 | |
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
Northwestern: last 4 games
| W34-13 | |
| L23-29 | |
| W41-7 | |
| W34-18 |
