Final
Fri, Oct 2, 8:00 PM ET
Ryan Field · 55° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Penn State–Northwestern) | 22–28 | – | 13–34 |
| Spread | Northwestern −5.5 | Penn State −3 | Northwestern −21 |
| Total | 49.9 | 46.5 | 47 |
| Northwestern win chance | 64% | – | – |
Line moved from Penn State −7 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern +3 Won★ Over 46.5 Won
Spread: 8.5 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 5.511%
Penn State by 14+
26%
Penn State by 1–13
34%
Northwestern by 1–13
30%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Penn State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.019 #55 | Offense EPA / play | +0.148 #18 |
| −0.086 #18 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.013 #66 |
| −1.8% #88 | Offense success rate | +5.4% #18 |
| −5.2% #14 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.5% #97 |
| −0.014 #88 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.179 #12 |
| +0.054 #43 | Passing EPA / play | +0.194 #11 |
| +0.061 #88 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.074 #95 |
| −0.226 #8 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.087 #26 |
| +2.5 #43 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #37 |
| −8.1 #10 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #18 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.2% #54 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.7% #19 |
| −3.8% #28 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.0% #25 |
| +0.55 #33 | Points per drive | +0.08 #59 |
| −0.74 #18 | Points per drive allowed | −0.86 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.16 #111 | Line yards per rush | +0.35 #29 |
| −0.28 #25 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.38 #124 |
| −4.3% #38 | Runs stuffed at the line | −7.8% #5 |
| +2.8% #33 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.4% #107 |
| −2.2% #50 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.9% #37 |
| +1.9% #26 | Havoc created | +0.4% #49 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.045 #98 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.027 #60 |
| +0.218 #33 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #53 |
| −0.22 #82 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.13 #34 |
| −0.359 #1 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.180 #10 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #48 | Run rate | 57% #57 |
| −10.4 #81 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.8 #14 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Penn State | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 32.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| +16.0 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 53.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Northwestern: last 3 games
| L23-29 | |
| W41-7 | |
| W34-18 |
