Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium · 67° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Michigan–Minnesota) | 26–22 | – | 14–20 |
| Spread | Michigan −4.1 | Michigan −6.5 | Minnesota −6 |
| Total | 47.9 | 41.5 | 34 |
| Minnesota win chance | 40% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Minnesota +6.5 Won★ Over 41.5 Lost
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan by 4.126%
Michigan by 14+
34%
Michigan by 1–13
27%
Minnesota by 1–13
13%
Minnesota by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Michigan | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.055 #37 | Offense EPA / play | −0.059 #87 |
| −0.055 #26 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.025 #62 |
| +1.9% #42 | Offense success rate | −0.6% #65 |
| −4.6% #12 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.5% #53 |
| +0.025 #51 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.136 #115 |
| +0.094 #36 | Passing EPA / play | +0.011 #57 |
| −0.059 #23 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #70 |
| −0.139 #16 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.079 #81 |
| +0.3 #63 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #65 |
| −4.4 #22 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.9 #45 |
| Situational | ||
| +4.9% #24 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.1% #117 |
| −3.6% #18 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.7% #101 |
| +0.00 #61 | Points per drive | +0.75 #25 |
| −0.33 #16 | Points per drive allowed | +0.46 #65 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.24 #17 | Line yards per rush | −0.73 #132 |
| −0.07 #38 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #64 |
| −5.8% #1 | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.3% #128 |
| +0.6% #48 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #61 |
| −0.6% #50 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #45 |
| +1.7% #30 | Havoc created | +4.5% #5 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.030 #80 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.178 #130 |
| +0.104 #33 | Passing explosiveness | −0.093 #106 |
| −0.28 #90 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.54 #126 |
| +0.092 #113 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.021 #91 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #26 | Run rate | 43% #132 |
| −1.6 #17 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.8 #99 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Michigan | Season to date | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 23.0 / 15.8 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 18.0 |
| +7.2 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| -6.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Michigan: last 4 games
| L19-20 | |
| W52-17 | |
| W17-10 | |
| W13-12 |
Minnesota: last 4 games
| W27-24 | |
| W41-7 | |
| L13-38 | |
| W59-7 |
