Final
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium · 74° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Northern Iowa–Iowa) | 4–49 | – | 0–55 |
| Spread | Iowa −45.8 | Iowa −37.5 | Iowa −55 |
| Total | 53.0 | 48.5 | 55 |
| Iowa win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Iowa −40.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa −37.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 8.3 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.5 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Iowa by 45.80%
Northern Iowa by 14+
0%
Northern Iowa by 1–13
2%
Iowa by 1–13
98%
Iowa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Northern Iowa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.224 | Offense EPA / play | +0.004 #61 |
| +0.310 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.064 #20 |
| −9.6% | Offense success rate | −0.4% #66 |
| +15.7% | Defense success rate allowed | −6.4% #8 |
| −0.213 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.018 #43 |
| −0.206 | Passing EPA / play | −0.004 #60 |
| +0.345 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.062 #27 |
| +0.294 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.017 #44 |
| −13.4 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #53 |
| +16.3 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.4 #9 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.6% #102 |
| +13.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −3.9% #19 |
| −1.57 | Points per drive | +0.02 #52 |
| +2.58 | Points per drive allowed | −0.56 #13 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.84 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #38 |
| +0.82 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.10 #42 |
| +9.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #54 |
| −3.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.5% #40 |
| +2.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.5% #8 |
| −2.6% | Havoc created | −0.3% #58 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.073 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.128 #16 |
| −0.021 | Passing explosiveness | −0.201 #130 |
| −0.91 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.09 #39 |
| +0.005 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.043 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 53% #60 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.0 #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Northern Iowa | Season to date | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 0.0 / 55.0 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 12.6 |
| -55.0 | Avg margin | +16.4 |
| -17.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.6 |
| 49.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.8 |
Northern Iowa: last games
No games yet.
Iowa: last 2 games
| W16-13 | |
| W40-0 |
