Final
Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM ET
SHI Stadium · 68° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Howard–Rutgers) | 10–48 | – | 7–58 |
| Spread | Rutgers −37.0 | Rutgers −42.5 | Rutgers −51 |
| Total | 58.0 | 57.5 | 65 |
| Rutgers win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from Rutgers −41.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Howard +42.5 Lost★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 5.5 pts better than Vegas for Howard (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Rutgers by 37.00%
Howard by 14+
1%
Howard by 1–13
7%
Rutgers by 1–13
92%
Rutgers by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Howard | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.385 | Offense EPA / play | −0.064 #91 |
| +0.312 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.130 #116 |
| −20.2% | Offense success rate | +2.6% #40 |
| +11.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #109 |
| −0.312 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.076 #118 |
| −0.408 | Passing EPA / play | −0.036 #74 |
| +0.228 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.133 #121 |
| +0.378 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.156 #107 |
| −23.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #82 |
| +19.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.6 #118 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.8% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.0% #23 |
| +16.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.0% #78 |
| −3.26 | Points per drive | −0.51 #89 |
| +2.87 | Points per drive allowed | +0.51 #101 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.94 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #74 |
| +0.70 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #123 |
| +4.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.9% #69 |
| −5.5% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #98 |
| +5.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.2% #119 |
| −1.3% | Havoc created | −4.3% #135 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.198 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.069 #103 |
| +0.533 | Passing explosiveness | +0.325 #17 |
| −1.09 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #88 |
| +0.377 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.020 #73 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 54% #92 |
| +17.9 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.2 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Howard | Season to date | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-3 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 3.5 / 56.5 | Points for / against | 30.0 / 32.2 |
| -53.0 | Avg margin | -2.2 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Howard: last 1 games
| L0-55 |
Rutgers: last 3 games
| L35-42 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L21-37 |
