Final
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET
Lambeau Field · 70° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wisconsin–Notre Dame) | 11–35 | – | 13–41 |
| Spread | Notre Dame −24.4 | Notre Dame −21 | Notre Dame −28 |
| Total | 46.2 | 45.5 | 54 |
| Notre Dame win chance | 94% | – | – |
Line moved from Notre Dame −16.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Notre Dame −21 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 3.4 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 24.41%
Wisconsin by 14+
5%
Wisconsin by 1–13
19%
Notre Dame by 1–13
75%
Notre Dame by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wisconsin | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.013 #68 | Offense EPA / play | +0.174 #4 |
| −0.028 #33 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.157 #3 |
| −0.1% #65 | Offense success rate | +7.8% #4 |
| −1.6% #33 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.3% #8 |
| +0.048 #50 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.145 #5 |
| −0.026 #66 | Passing EPA / play | +0.182 #6 |
| −0.040 #26 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.098 #10 |
| −0.035 #25 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.185 #1 |
| −1.1 #66 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.3 #2 |
| −6.1 #15 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.4 #7 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.4% #49 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.3% #1 |
| −2.7% #19 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.7% #6 |
| +0.03 #51 | Points per drive | +2.10 #1 |
| −0.69 #16 | Points per drive allowed | −0.98 #9 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.21 #34 | Line yards per rush | +0.29 #19 |
| −0.22 #20 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.29 #15 |
| −2.7% #31 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #55 |
| +2.7% #14 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.9% #24 |
| −1.0% #81 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.2% #19 |
| +0.6% #33 | Havoc created | +2.3% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.021 #43 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.066 #4 |
| +0.110 #61 | Passing explosiveness | +0.031 #126 |
| −0.11 #62 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.43 #2 |
| −0.035 #16 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.014 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #29 | Run rate | 57% #43 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wisconsin | Season to date | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 31.6 / 16.6 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 11.8 |
| +15.0 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.9 |
| 55.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
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