Final
Fri, Sep 4, 8:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 73° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Toledo–Michigan State) | 24–26 | – | 20–30 |
| Spread | Michigan State −2.4 | Michigan State −10 | Michigan State −10 |
| Total | 49.5 | 48.5 | 50 |
| Michigan State win chance | 56% | – | – |
Line moved from Michigan State −10.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Toledo +10 Push★ Over 48.5 Won
Spread: 7.6 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan State by 2.415%
Toledo by 14+
29%
Toledo by 1–13
33%
Michigan State by 1–13
23%
Michigan State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Toledo | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.049 #89 | Offense EPA / play | −0.029 #76 |
| +0.020 #59 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.041 #73 |
| −1.5% #88 | Offense success rate | −0.4% #69 |
| +0.4% #64 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #86 |
| +0.011 #81 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.006 #85 |
| −0.088 #97 | Passing EPA / play | −0.049 #79 |
| +0.039 #84 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.030 #72 |
| +0.077 #79 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.057 #72 |
| −3.4 #87 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #71 |
| +0.4 #59 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.6 #77 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.0% #104 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.6% #80 |
| +1.2% #82 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.4% #89 |
| −0.26 #80 | Points per drive | −0.14 #74 |
| +0.21 #72 | Points per drive allowed | +0.12 #62 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.02 #99 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #124 |
| −0.03 #56 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #57 |
| −1.2% #86 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.9% #134 |
| −0.0% #74 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.0% #73 |
| −1.6% #60 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #102 |
| −0.4% #62 | Havoc created | −1.4% #104 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.017 #55 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.031 #26 |
| +0.147 #34 | Passing explosiveness | +0.077 #102 |
| −0.22 #95 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #53 |
| +0.005 #63 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.003 #50 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #58 | Run rate | 55% #78 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Toledo | Season to date | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 42.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 18.2 / 23.2 |
| +16.8 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
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